 |
 Back to 2005 Press Releases
|
Gartner Says Worldwide Semiconductor Capital Equipment Market to Return to Positive Growth in 2006 |
STAMFORD, Conn. December 21, 2005 - While demand for capital equipment in 2005 softened, creating a decline in overall spending, the worldwide semiconductor capital equipment market is poised to grow 8.4 percent in 2006, with spending totalling $36.4 billion, according to Gartner, Inc.
In 2005, capital equipment spending declined 10.6 percent (see Table 1), as orders weakened in the first half of the year. However, by the second half of the year, the market experienced a turnabout in orders, especially in the back-end segments.
"The industry has managed to respond well to inventory fluctuations, slightly excessive capacity levels, and rapidly changing market parameters," said Klaus Rinnen, managing vice president for Gartner's semiconductor manufacturing and design research group. "The industry appears to have a reasonable balance between production levels and capacity and end-user demand."
"Looking further ahead, spending will rise in the first half of 2006, but spending should flatten in the second half of the year before starting a sustainable recovery into 2008," Mr. Rinnen said.
Table 1
Worldwide Semiconductor Capital and Equipment Spending Forecasts (Millions of Dollars)
|
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
| Semiconductor Capital Spending |
48,359 |
46,617 |
46,431 |
51,026 |
65,410 |
60,998 |
52,747 |
| Growth (%) |
63.0 |
-3.6 |
-0.4 |
9.9 |
28.2 |
-6.7 |
-13.5 |
| Capital Equipment |
37,580 |
33,580 |
36,413 |
41,483 |
52,804 |
45,993 |
38,817 |
| Growth (%) |
64.2 |
-10.6 |
8.4 |
13.9 |
27.3 |
-12.9 |
-15.6 |
| Wafer Fab Equipment |
28,221 |
25,739 |
26,580 |
29,688 |
38,838 |
34,786 |
30,230 |
| Growth (%) |
68.6 |
-8.8 |
3.3 |
11.7 |
30.8 |
-10.4 |
-13.1 |
| Packaging and Assembly Equipment |
4,569 |
4,061 |
4,958 |
5,595 |
6,861 |
5,547 |
4,741 |
| Growth (%) |
45.9 |
-11.1 |
22.1 |
12.9 |
22.6 |
-19.1 |
-14.5 |
| Automated Test Equipment |
4,790 |
3,780 |
4,875 |
6,200 |
7,105 |
5,660 |
3,845 |
| Growth (%) |
58.5 |
-21.1 |
29.0 |
27.2 |
14.6 |
-20.3 |
-32.1 |
| Other Spending |
10,778 |
13,037 |
10,018 |
9,542 |
12,606 |
15,005 |
13,930 |
| Growth (%) |
59.2 |
21.0 |
-23.2 |
-4.7 |
32.1 |
19.0 |
-7.2 |
Source: Gartner Dataquest (December 2005)
Worldwide wafer fab equipment spending is forecast to grow 3.3 percent in 2006, after declining 8.8 percent in 2005. Worldwide semiconductor wafer fab utilization rates in 2005 remained in a fairly narrow range of between 85 percent and 90 percent, and Gartner analysts expect this to continue, albeit on a slightly upward trend, through 2007 when total utilization rates will break into the 90 percent range.
"We expect to see capacity and wafer fab equipment market growth dictated by increased device demand, and the increasingly costly transitions to new technology nodes," Mr. Rinnen said. "With equipment costs increasing an estimated 10 percent for each new technology node, manufacturers will manage investments in new technology very carefully."
The packaging and assembly (P&A) equipment market will decline 11.1 percent in 2005, which is slightly better than Gartner's previous forecast in October for a14.9 percent decline. The first half of 2005 was relatively slow, paralleling the slowness in the overall packaging/assembly market. More positive conditions developed late in the second quarter as industry utilization rates began to tighten and move back near the 85 percent mark.
For the first half of 2005, revenue dropped significantly for many key automated test equipment (ATE) providers. However, ATE spending picked up in the second half of the year. "The current increase in ATE sales is primarily being driven by increasing capacity requirements for memory and SOC testers," Mr. Rinnen said. "Expanding demand for these semiconductor devices, coupled with the trend toward further outsourcing of test to SATS companies, is sparking the latest ATE market growth cycle."
Additional information is available in the Gartner report "Semiconductor Capital Equipment Demand to Rise in 2006."
This research is produced by Gartner Dataquest's Semiconductors Manufacturing and Design program. This research program, which is part of the overall semiconductor research group, provides a comprehensive view of the entire semiconductor industry, from manufacturing and design to device and application market trends. More information on Gartner's semiconductor research can be found in the Gartner Semiconductor Focus Area.
CONTACTS:
Laurence Goasduff
+44 1784 431611
laurence.goasduff@gartner.com
Tom McCall
(408) 468-8312
tom.mccall@gartner.com
|
About Gartner:
Gartner, Inc. (NYSE: IT) is the leading provider of research and analysis on the global information technology industry. Gartner serves more than 9,000 clients, including chief information officers and other senior IT executives in corporations and government agencies, as well as technology companies and the investment community. The Company focuses on delivering objective, in-depth analysis and actionable advice to enable clients to make more informed business and technology decisions. The Company's businesses consist of Research and Events for IT professionals; Gartner Executive Programs, membership programs and peer networking services; and Gartner Consulting, customized engagements with a specific emphasis on outsourcing and IT management. Founded in 1979, Gartner is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut, and has more than 3,900 associates, including more than 1,200 research analysts and consultants, in more than 75 countries worldwide. For more information,
visit www.gartner.com.
|
|
|
|
|
