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Gartner Identifies Challenges of Emerging Supranet Environment
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Wireless and Wire-Based Networks Are Converging to Create New Global Marketplace
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Barcelona, Spain, September 11, 2000 — The proliferation of wireless mobile communications as an additional medium for data communications, marks the start of a new phase in the Internet, as it evolves into a Supranet, according to Gartner Group, Inc. (NYSE: IT and ITB). By 2005, 25 percent of profitable Internet applications will be delivered in a framework based on Gartner's definition of the Supranet, integrating at least three types of communication media into each interaction. Gartner analysts presented their findings during Gartner's Mobile E-Business conference that is being held September 11-12 in Barcelona, Spain.
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Gartner defines the Supranet as the emerging, ubiquitous network infrastructure that links the "e-world" (the world of electronic devices such as computers, phones and televisions) and the "p-world" (the physical world of paper, houses, people, vehicles, and so forth) within natural human interactions.
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"Enterprises that recognize the opportunity and challenge presented by the emergence of the Supranet will participate in the next major phase of the Internet," said Simon Hayward, research director for Gartner. "Those who treat the arrival of wireless access to the Internet as just another terminal device and protocol set to worry about, will find themselves as far behind as those that thought the Internet was not relevant to their industry or community.
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"The key is to recognize that wireless opens up a new world of linked interactions using mobile and fixed devices in innovative ways. These are not just phones and PCs, but music players, cameras, map terminals, game machines and more. Building Supranet applications will involve linking all of these together, to create new experiences, not just presenting a cut-down Web page on a four-line display."
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The Supranet is developing with the increased penetration of mobile devices. Gartner's Dataquest forecasts worldwide mobile phone shipments will surpass 744 million units in 2004. In 1999, worldwide mobile phone shipments reached 291 million units. Worldwide mobile computer shipments are forecast to grow from 24.6 million units in 1999 to 70.1 million in 2004.
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Some of the earliest forms of the Supranet are taking place today. It can be seen in some regions where people are using their mobile phone to purchase sodas from a machine, or where a message can be sent by e-mail, and then it can be delivered as postal mail.
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Other examples where the Supranet would occur are when a son or daughter calls a parent from a foreign country where they ran out of money. The person goes to an ATM, calls the parent on a mobile phone, the parent authorizes the cash withdrawal, and the ATM dispenses the cash to person.
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The technologies will also allow a person to take a picture with a digital camera, and send it to someone's TV via a set-top box. With a mobile phone, the person at home could link to the set-top box and the file could be transmitted through the phone. This person can then go to a photo shop, point their mobile phone at a machine, and it will print a copy of the picture. The person could then receive a message from their bank saying there was no charge because it had been billed to the person who took the picture.
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"The key to this next stage of Internet evolution will be the design of user experiences, and the applications that underpin them," said Mr. Hayward. "It's important to understand the wireless Web is not what companies should solely focus on. This goes beyond just wire-based and wireless Web transactions. The mobile-wireless dimension of the Web forces a wider vision of the fundamental nature of the Web as an information and communication network. With wireless technologies, the Web can dramatically expand its connection to the physical world and thus interconnect 'sub-networks' not previously considered as part of the Internet."
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Additional analysis on the Supranet environment will be presented during Gartner's Symposium/ITxpo 2000, October 16-20 in Lake Buena Vista, Florida. This event is the IT industry's largest and most strategic conference providing business leaders with a look at the future of IT. Some of the speakers at this year's event include Hewlett-Packard's chairman and CEO, Carly Fiorina; Sun Microsystems' chairman and CEO, Scott McNealy; and Microsoft's president and CEO, Steve Ballmer. To register for Gartner's Symposium/ITxpo 2000, please call 1-800-778-1997 or 1-203-316-6757, or go to www.gartner.com/symposium. Members of the media can register by contacting Lisette Kwong at 1-212-320-2330 or lkwong@tsicomm.com.
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