The number of public wireless LAN (WLAN) hot spots will quadruple.

By the end of 2003, wireless users will be able to virtually "plug in" at 20,000 public WLAN hot spots worldwide — and 120,000 locations by 2007. By 2007, more than 31 million people will frequently use public WLAN hot spots — and more than 35 million will use them infrequently — all of this representing $9 billion in service revenue (0.7 probability). With simple precautions and an eye on emerging security standards, enterprises can safely and productively adopt WLANs for mobile workers and executives. But all is not perfect: The sheer number of vendors and lack of interoperability between billing plans threaten to escalate costs for enterprises that lack policies governing use.

The portal market will disappear as suites emerge.

At its apex in early 2000, about 100 vendors competed for the portal product market. At year-end 2002, about 50 vendors remained, with no single vendor owning more than 15 percent of the market. In 2003, as users ask less for portals and more for portal functionality, these capabilities will be embedded in different technologies. By 2004, portal functionality will become just one more component of larger suites, and, by 2005, the market for portals will have disappeared. Several classes of vendors will struggle through 2005: the remaining pure-play vendors and those midtier vendors without compelling suite offerings.

Online bill payment will be the fastest-growing online financial application in 2003.

The number of U.S. consumers using online bill payment more than doubled in 2002, reaching approximately 25 million by year end. This number will grow nearly 35 percent to almost 33 million users in 2003 (0.7 probability). Note to banks: Consumers who pay bills online at your bank are at least twice as likely to stay on as your customers as those who don't, and consumers who are 65 years old or older are the most likely to use your bill payment service instead of going to a nonbank service provider.

IT begins to go the way of electricity and gas, as the "IT as utility" concept gains momentum.

Lured by the promise of cost savings and influenced by a major push by IBM Global Services, the North American IT utility (ITU) market will grow to $8.6 billion in 2003, on its way to more than $25 billion in 2006. Think of ITUs as frameworks of IT infrastructure that deliver standardized IT services or business processes. Enterprises that use ITUs trade in some or all of their custom-built IT infrastructures to external ITU service providers. For these users, the notion of acquiring systems is being transformed from the purchase of assets to gaining access to provider-owned-and-operated subscription services.

Business units will control virtually all discretionary IT spending.

Not only are business units making more IT project decisions, they also have been given authority to manage project budgets, doling out project funding as needed. The IS organization will be required to prove every step of the way that projects are progressing as planned to get the next phase funded. Major projects will be split into multiple smaller projects, and business units will have complete power to delay funding at each project stage and, indeed, discontinue projects, practically at will.

As IT investments focus largely on tactical projects, 60 percent of them will ultimately lead to higher costs.

It's crisis management time for IS departments. If our prediction comes true, it will mean the third consecutive year of cost-driven management decisions, which will push many IS organizations over the edge and impair service delivery and IT infrastructures — many to the point of breakdown. IS organizations must develop and implement a strategy for tactical decision making to bring order to the growing chaos.